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《Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering》 2014-01
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Study on Decision-making of BOT Project's Franchise Value under Uncertainty ——— Taking Water Conservancy Project for Example

QIUQiu-lu;JIAN Ying-hui;CAO Qi;Business College, Hohai University;  
Generally, based on the quasi commonweal of water conservancy project and reasonable return on the investment of private capital, the BOTmodel is adopted in its operating facilities during the comprehensive utilization ofwater conservancy, the reasonable franchise value is the key to develop the BOTproject, and the BOTproject franchise value determines the investment apportionmentof public facilities and business facilities.Firstof all, the franchise value decision model is built, the uncertain factors influencing the water conservancy BOTproject's franchise value are identified by using systemdynamicsmethod,and theMonte-Carlomethod is applied to simulate the NPVof concession period,then the BOTfranchise value ofwaterconservancy projectisgained.Finally,the resonability of thismethod isverified through a concrete case,which could provide a reference for decision making.
【Fund】: 中央高校基金(2013B07814)
【CateGory Index】: F426.93
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