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《Journal of Fuyang Teachers College(Natural Science)》 2014-04
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Modeling and predicting of Wuhu real estate boom index

ZHU Xu;HE Lei;PENG Yan-liang;School of Mathematics & Computer Science,Anhui Normal University;  
X-11 process was used to eliminate seasonal factors and compared-with-the-same method was adopted to eliminate the dimension influence.Then factor analysis method was used to weight Wufang index compiling and the method of mathematical statistics was adopted to analyze the Wufang index to establish early warning system.Compared with the actual situation,the early warning system was found to be effective.To establish the forecast model of Wufang index,the warning system grading and the classification index of the seven indicators were combined to fit out effective ordinal regression model.Based on the sequence of Wufang index in recent years,ARMA model was established and it made effective forecast on the later five-period Wufang index.
【Fund】: 安徽高等学校省级自然科学研究重点项目(KJ2012A135)资助
【CateGory Index】: F299.23;F224
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