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THEORETICAL STUDIES ON PREDICTION OF LANDSLIDES USING SLOPE DEFORMATION PROCESS DATA

XU Qiang(State key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059)  
Research on slope deformation and failure process and landslide prediction method has been undertaken freqeuently since Saito developed the landslide prediction and forecasting method with help of creep test in 1960s.Dozens of models and methods for landslide prediction and forecasting have been put forward.With the increasing monitoring work on slope deformation and increasing available data,many kinds of displacement-time curves have been proposed.Many problems such as the types and features of slope displacement-time curves and the mechanic conditions forming the curves must be regarded as the most basic scientific problems.Theyhave to be answered and solved when landslide early warning and prediction are being carried out.This paper summarizes the landslide deformation and failure mechanisms and their corresponding displacement-time curves.With the aid of rheological test,three types of landslide deformation and failure processes are proposed.They are thehe steady type,the gradual change type and the sudden failure type.Their corresponding mechanic conditions are also studied.In the view of micromechanics,the macro deformation and failure of a slope are mainly attributed to the flow and micro rupture of rock and soil in microscopic scale.The flow and micro rupture can play different roles in slopes with different lithology or in different deformation phases of a slope.
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