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《Systems Engineering》 2001-03
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Study on the Potential Tourists and Life cycle of Tourism Produnct A System Dynamics Approach

XU hong gang (Environment and Earth Science School,Zhongshan University,Guangzhou 512075,China)  
The effectiveness of investment decisions and other managerial decision largely depends on the life cycle of tourism products. Risks are generated if the life cycle process of tourism products determined by the potential tourism market is unknown to the decision makers. However, the investors in tourism industries and industrial advisors normally postulate the tourist growth based on the past trend by applying linear regression functions and ignore the non linear characteristics of tourist market. The growth rate of the tourists is always speculated to increase and leads to the oversupply of tourism facilities and investment. A system dynamics model of the life cycle of a generic tourism product is build for. It is expected through the computer simulation,learning can be obtainded to understand the non linearity and dynamic nature of the tourism products and effective policies will be explored.
【CateGory Index】: F224.0
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