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《Systems Engineering》 2014-10
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Complex Equipment Cost Drive Factors Identification Model with Maximization of the Driving Effect Proportion

FANG Shi-li;WU Li-feng;LIU Si-feng;FANG Zhi-geng;Yu Liang;College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics;China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology;  
Considering that the complex equipment cost prediction samples are small and its influencing factors of cost are numerous,this paper explores the drivin proportion of the cost driver factors.The drive ratio maximization and the uncertainty of the weight are comprehensively considered,the multiple objective weight allocation model is established by the maximum entropy principle,and the weights are solved by using Lagrange multiplier method.The cost drive factors are determined according to the weight size and weight close degree,a multiple regression model is set up by using the drive factors.The results show that this method have high forecasting power by comparing the existing methods,and cost drive factor identification model can diagnose the key influence factors of complex equipment.
【Fund】: 国家社科基金重点资助项目(12AZD102);; 国家自然科学基金资助项目(71401051);; “大型飞机”国家科技重大专项(2009ZX11002);; 南京航空航天大学引进人才基金资助项目(1009-YAH14003);; 江苏省基础研究计划——青年基金资助项目(BK20130786);; 中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金资助项目(NP2014105);; 国家级教学团队基金资助项目(10td128)
【CateGory Index】: O212.1
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