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《Guangdong Meteorology》 2006-03
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Analysis and Prediction on the Abnormal Track of Strong Typhoon CHANCHU

LI Tian-ran~1,WU Wan-ping~2,LIN Liang-xun~1(1.Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory,Guangzhou 510080,China2.Guangdong Meteorological Association,Guangzhou 510080,China)  
Four stages of the track of strong typhoon CHANCHU and the influencing factors are analyzed in this paper,which focuses on those contributing to the abnormal north turn from a westerly track.A preliminary conclusion can be drawn that the adjustment of the large scale circulations,such as eastward retreat and southward downshift of the subtropical high ridgeline,the alternation of cross-equator flow,and the activity of weak cold air,weakened the steering effect of the environmental flow on CHANCHU.The non-linear interaction between CHANCHU and the weak environmental flow is the major reason why CHANCHU made such a sharp north turn from the former steady westerly track.Sea Surface Temperature(SST) distribution favored the intensification of CHANCHU,alternated its thermal structure,and hence,influenced its track.The horizontal structural changes of CHANCHU,especially the alternation of the asymmetrical thermal structure,have had more impacts on the typhoon track.Nearly perfect forecasts on the track of CHANCHU have been made by different prediction centers in either subjective or objective products.
【Fund】: 广州中心气象台科研基金项目
【CateGory Index】: P457.8
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