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《Guangdong Meteorology》 2007-03
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Assessment Report on Climate Change of Guangdong(Selection)

Composing team for Assessment Report on Climate Change of Guangdong  
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report has addressed that the global average temperature increased by about 0.74 ℃ in recent century,and gained an acceleration in latest 50 years,which is probably due to human activities;Significant global warming is expected to continue in 21st century,and the extreme weather/climate events and the weather related disasters will be even more severe.In the past 50 years,the increase in temperature of Guangdong was equivalent to the global average.Pearl River delta was the warming center,followed by the coastal areas of southeast Guangdong.It is projected that annual average temperature in Guangdong will increase by 1.0℃,1.9℃,and 2.8℃ from 2011 to 2040,2041 to 2070 and 2071 to 2100 respectively.Under the background of global warming,the climate changes in Guangdong are characterized by the following aspects: stronger precipitation variations,more frequent drought/flood disasters, less typhoons landfalling in Guangdong with abnormal landing time,increasing number in high temperature days with more frequent heat wave and extreme hot weather,decreasing number in low temperature days with significant warm winter,increasing the uncertainty of the extreme low temperature variations with intensified cold damages,increasing number in dust haze days with less sunshine hours,and increasing extreme climate/weather events with weather related disaster causing dramatically increasing economic loss.The climate warming in recent 50 years in Guangdong can likely be attributed to greenhouse effect caused by the continued growth of greenhouse gas condensation.In addition,the heat island effect caused by urbanization also contributes to enhance the local climate warming.Climate warming has its negative impacts as well as the positive ones.But the negative are the major aspects.Climate warming will cause the sea level rising,which may bring severe negative impacts to the low-lying areas along Guangdong coastline.Estimates for the past century show that global average sea level has risen up to 10 to 20cm,and the sea level along Guangdong coastline rose at a rate of 1.7mm/yr during the same period.With sea level rising,coastline erosion and the salty-tide invasion have become even more severe.Temperature increasing may cause the degeneration of eco-systems of coral reefs along the Guangdong coastline,which are likely to be more vulnerable.The salty tide invasion of Pearl River estuary may become morefrequent as well as the red tides along Guangdong coastline.Climate change will bring instabilities to agriculture,hence affect the agricultural output,causing an increase of cost and investment.What is more,the climate change also brings negative impacts on many aspects of society and economy(e.g.water resources,human health,human inhabitation environment,insurance and other financial industries).Some advices for the adaptation and mitigation of climate changes are proposed here: to reduce the greenhouse effects by the enforcement of energy conservation and consumption reduction strategy,to adapt to the climate already changed,to improve the capabilities of monitoring on climate systems,to sponsor the scientific research on climate change and the technology innovations for the adaptation of climate change,to include the climate change issues into the economic and social development planning,to educate the public of climate protection,to increase the investment and advance the exchanges and cooperation in this research fields.
【Fund】: 广东省气象局科研项目(2007103)资助
【CateGory Index】: P467
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