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The Analysis and Prediction of Cold and Rainy Weather of Spring in Shaoguan

LIU Yan-qun(Shaoguan Meteorological Observatory,Shaoguan 512028,China)  
Based on the daily mean temperature of 8 stations between late February and April in Shaoguan during 1965-2004,the statistics methods were applied to research the climatic variations of cold and rainy weather of spring in Shaoguan;The results of analyses reveal: in Shaoguan region,there were 8-14d's cold weather every year on average,and most of which were going with rain.There were more cold and rainy weather in 1965-1972 and 1982-1996,and less in 1973-1981 and 1997-2004.The cold and rainy weather in Shaoguan has significant periods of 2.5 years、3.5 years、8.3 years and 13.9 years.Prediction by stepwise regression with principal component analysis was performed for cold and rainy weather in Shaoguan.The fitting back and testing predictions by stepwise regression equations were significant,which indicates a certain referrence for forecast practice.
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