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《Guangdong Electric Power》 2017-06
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Improvement of Spatial Correlation Wind Speed Prediction Based on Variable Coefficient Model

LIU Yang;YANG Zhengling;ZHANG Ze;ZHU Xinshan;ZHANG Jun;School of Electrical and Automation Engineering,Tianjin University;Key Laboratory of Process Measurement and Control,Tianjin University;  
Spatial correlation method has been paid more and more attention for wind power prediction in recent years.In order to improve ultra-short-term wind power prediction effect,this paper presents a kind of method for improving spatial correlation wind speed prediction by using the variable coefficient model.It firstly introduces a modeling approach for spatial correlation wind speed prediction,and then according to change of wind speed sequence relationship with time,it introduces the variable coefficient model.By means of weighted least squares method,it makes parameter estimation and proposes a kind of weight function form.Based on simulating experiment,it studies influence of forgetting factor in the weight function on prediction error and verifies effectiveness and feasibility of this variable coefficient model in improving spatial correlation wind speed prediction.
【CateGory Index】: TK81;TM614
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【Citations】
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1 YANG Jiaran;WANG Xingcheng;SUI Lintao;LIU Xianzheng;LUO Xiaofen;College of Information Science and Technology,Dalian Maritime University;Huaneng Weihai Power Generation Co.,Ltd.;;Risk-based admissibility assessment of wind power integration[J];电力自动化设备;2017-08
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