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《South China Journal of Preventive Medicine》 2007-06
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Analyze and predict trend of syphilis from 2001 to 2006 in Tianjin

DONG Xiao-yue*,ZHOU Ning.*Tianjin Medical University,On-job postgraduates,Working in Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Tianjin,Tianjin 300070,China  
Objective To analyze and predict the trend of syphilis in Tianjin and provide scientific base for syphilis control.Methods Reported cases of syphilis were collected and analyzed using descriptive method from 2001 to 2006.GM(1,1) model was applied to predict trends from 2007 to 2009 in Tianjin.Results There reported 53 204 STDs,including 5 637 syphilis cases which accounted for average 10.60% annually and had an average annual incidence of 14.70/100 000.Syphilis incidence went up year by year with an average annual increasing rate of 42.66%.The grey predict model [GM(1,1)] had an average error rate of 4.167% and good precision(C=0.091,P=1),which showed ascending trend of syphilis from 2007 to 2009.Conclusion The trend of syphilis was rising and well established surveillance system and control measures should be strengthened.
【CateGory Index】: R759.1
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