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《China Industrial Economics》 2010-12
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An Analysis of the Increase of CO_2 Emission in China——Based on SDA Technique

GUO Chao-xian(Institute of Industrial Economics CASS,Beijing 100836,China)  
This paper design an extension model of import-competition economy-energy-environment input-output system,using two-level nested method of Structural Decomposition Analysis to decompose 1992—2007 CO2 emission in China.The conclusions are as follows: The dominant factor to reduce CO2 emission is the effect of the change of energy consumption intensity;The main factors to increase CO2 emission are the effect of final demand expansion and the effect of the change of input-output coefficient;Whereas,the effect of the change of import substitution and the effect of the change of energy consumption structure are indistinctive.In the effect of final demand expansion,export-expansion and investment-expansion become more and more important,while consumption-expansion is less important one.The amount of CO2 emission increased rapidly in 2002—2007 reveals the characteristics of industrialization with high-carbon in the new stage.The effect of the change of input-output coefficient became greater and greater especially in the energy industry reveals that the tradition extensive-industrialization road still continue and maybe become worsen.
【Fund】: 国家科技支撑计划课题“跨区域经济发展动态仿真模拟技术开发”(批准号2006BAC18B03);; 国家社会科学基金重大项目“产业竞争优势转型战略与全球分工模式的演变”(批准号09&ZD035)
【CateGory Index】: X321
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1 Zhang Youguo(Institute of Quantitative Economics and Technical Economics,Center for Environment and Development,CASS);Economic Development Pattern Change Impact on China's Carbon Intensity[J];Economic Research Journal;2010-04
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