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《Arid Land Geography》 2003-02
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Uncertainties in Water Resources System and Risk Analysis Method

ZUO Qi-ting 1,2 WU Ze-ning1 ZHAO Wei3 (1 School of Environment & Water conservancy, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450002, China; 2 Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Science, Urumqi 830011, China; 3 Xinjiang Water Resources Planning and Management Bureau, Urumqi 830001, China)  
One of the key problems in water resources system research today is how to quantify uncertainty, which is inherent in every water resources system. Uncertainties are the origin of risk in hydrology and water resources. In this paper, the types of uncertainties in water resources system are comprehensively concluded, such as random, fuzzy, grey and unascertainty, and the concept of uncertain system of water resources is puts forward. From the points of mathematical proceeding of uncertainty factors, the risk analysis model based on probability theory (related to the field of random) is introduced, and new risk analysis models based on fuzzy subordinative degree (related to the field of fuzzy), grey number (related to the field of grey) and unascertained mathematics (related to the field of unascertainty) are put forward. It lay a foundation for risk planning and management of water resources.
【Fund】: 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目 (G19990 43 60 8);; 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目 (KZCX3 -SW -3 2 7)
【CateGory Index】: TV213
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