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《Arid Land Geography》 2007-06
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Relations between sand-dust days and the former year atmospheric indexes in Tarim Basin

MAO Wei-yi1,2,TAN Yan-mei3,LI Xi-fu4(1 Xinjiang Climate Center,Urumqi 830002,Xinjiang,China;2 Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing of Gansu Province,Institute of Arid-meteorology,CMA,Lanzhou 730020,Gansu,China;3 Xinjiang Meterological Observatory,Urumqi 830002,Xinjiang,China;4 Qinghai Meteorological Bureau,Xining 810001,Qinhai,China)  
The relationships are analyzed between the number of sand-dust days of the Tarim Basin from 14 Meteorological stations and all the 74 circulation indexes of the former year from the climate diagnostics and prediction Division of the National Climate Center.Thirty one sets of initial factor database by Filted Linear trend are constructed separately by sliding-correlation method and regression model,and two assembling-regression models are constructed by stepwise regression method.The correlation coefficient of sandstorm from April to June,blowing-sand from April to July and floating-dust from March to May are 0.952 0,0.812 4,0.889 7 respectively between the measured and simulated sand-dust days in Tarim Basin.There are 6,7,8 atmospheric circulation indexes respectively which have notable correlation with sandstorm,blowing-sand and floating-dust.Among those indexes,there are 3 which have notable correlation with more and fewer sandstorm days from April to June,These are Index of the strength of the India-Burma trough(15~20°N,80~100°E)of July to August,Index of the area of the subtropical high over Indian(65~95°E)of February to March,Index of the area of the polar vortex in the Atlantic and Europe sector(4 regions,30°W~60°E)of April to July.There are 6 which have notable correlation with more and fewer blowing-sand days from April to June.These are the Index of the area of the subtropical high over the western Pacific(110~180°E)of June to August,Index of the area of the subtropical high over the South China Sea(100~120°E)of October to November,Index of the area of the subtropical high over the Pacific(110°E~115°W)of June to August,Index of the strength of the polar vortex in the north American(3 regions,120~30°W)of August to October,Index of the area of the subtropical high over the eastern Pacific(175~115°W)of June,Index of the strength of the polar vortex in northern hemisphere(5 regions,0~360°)of September to November.There are 5 which have notable correlation with more and fewer floating-dust days from March to May.These are Index of the strength of the polar vortex in northern hemisphere(5 region,0-360°)of September to December,Index of the area of the subtropical high over the western Pacific(110~180°E)of July,Index of the area of the subtropical high over the South China Sea(100~120°E)of October to November,Index of the area of the polar vortex in the Atlantic and Europe sector(4 regions,30°W~60°E)of April to September,Index of Tibetan Plateau(25~35°N,80~100°E)of September.
【Fund】: 新疆气象局气象科技研究课题(200704)“气候预测统计模型中因子的不稳定性分析以及集合预测方法研究”;; 2005年度干旱气象科学研究基金项目(干旱区数值模式对比研究-8号)联合资助
【CateGory Index】: P445.4
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