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《Arid Land Geography》 2009-01
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Driving forces of the changes of land use/cover in northern China:1987-2006

LI Yue-chen,LIU Chun-xia(College of Geographical Science,Key Laboratory of GIS Application,Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing 400047,China)  
Analyzing the driving forces of land use/cover changes in typical regions is helpful to understanding the interactive mechanism between land use/cover system and physical and socio-economic factors.The paper selected the 13 provinces in northern China as study area and 42 factors from 1987 to 2006 are selected to find the driving forces of the land use/cover changes in the study area.The principal component analyses(PCA) and stepwise regression are applied in the paper.The result suggested that: The changes of farmland were mainly affected by living standard,the development and structure adjusting of agriculture and the need for food security.The changes of forest were driven by the increasing of population,the development and structure adjusting of agriculture,the advancement of agricultural technology and temperature.The driving forces of grassland changes were mainly the increasing of population,the development and structure adjusting of agriculture,the development of stockbreeding and precipitation,the changes of water related to the development of regional economy,the improving of living standard,the development and structure adjusting of agriculture and temperature.The increasing of population,the development of stockbreeding and precipitation gave effects to the changes of unable land.The changes of urban land have a close relation with the development of regional economy,the increasing of population,the construction investments and the advancement of agricultural technologies.The driving factors of each land use/cover type in different sub-regions were different each other because of the regional differences.But on the whole,socio-economic factors are the dominant driving forces.The temperature and precipitation have some effects in the northeast and northwest of study area where the nature factors play an important role in the changes of land use/cover.The factors of policy were not reflected in the research,but it is evident that the ecological policies also play an important part in driving the changes of land use/cover in study area.The areas where the changes of land use/cover were driven by comparative economic welfare mainly distribute in the counties which lied in the southeast of the three provinces in Northeast,Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,the middle and north of Shanxi,the north of Xinjiang and some other counties closing to the big cities.The areas where land use/cover changes were driven by living economic welfare mainly distribute in the counties lying in the farming-pasturing interlocked area in the east and in the counties in Qinghai and the west of south Xinjiang.The important food yielding areas in the study area were mainly driven by the need for food security.The areas where land use/cover changes were mainly driven by the environmental welfare distribute in the counties which lied in the middle of the three provinces in Northeast,Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,the Loess Plateau region,the Northwest and Hexi Corridor of Gansu,the middle and south of Inner Mongolia and the majority areas of Xinjiang.The changes of land use/cover were driven by comprehensive forces.So it should be studied systemically according to the characteristics of the driving forces in the study region.
【Fund】: 重庆市教育委员会科学技术研究项目(编号:KJ070811);; 重庆师范大学博士科研启动基金(06XLB004)
【CateGory Index】: F301
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