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《Arid Land Geography》 2009-06
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Driving force measurement of water utilization change in Liaoning Province and analysis of their spatial-temporal difference based on factor decomposition model

SUN Cai-zhi,WANG Yan(Urban and Environment School of Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,Liaoning,China)  
The factor decomposition model has widely been used in the energy,economy and environment sciences,but there is not much existing literature on the quantitative analyses on water utilization change by the decomposition model,the driving force measurement of water utilization change in Liaoning Province and analysis of their spatial-temporal difference based on decomposition model were considered to be firstly developed by this research.Water shortage,especially in Liaoning Province,has become the bottle-neck factor for the regeneration and sustainable development of major old industry foundation in China.The factor decomposition model was constructed in this paper to measure the economy growth effect,industrial construction effect and water utilization intensity effect of driving mechanism for water utilization change in Liaoning Province from 1994 to 2006,and the temporal difference of these effects was analyzed.The factor decomposition model was also applied to measure the three kinds of effect of fourteen cities in Liaoning Province from 1994 to 2006,and combined the ISODATA cluster model to cluster the effect in space,and the spatial difference of effects was carried out.The results showed that:(1)Economy growth increased water utilization,whose average effect from 1994 to 2006 was 15.09×108 m3/a;and water utilization intensity and industrial construction decreased water utilization,whose average effects from 1994 to 2006 were-13.32×108 m3/a and-12.55×108 m3/a respectively in the same phase.In different period,the various effects were different;(2) The average contribution ratio of economy growth was 46.66% from 1994 to 2006,and the ones of water utilization intensity and industrial construction were 38.73% and 14.61%,so the economy growth and water utilization intensity were the determined factors for water utilization change,and the effect of industrial construction should not be neglected;(3)The fluctuation degree of economy growth effect was least,which has a stable function of water utilization change,the fluctuation degree of industrial construction was most,which has a impact function of water utilization change,and the fluctuation degree of water intensity was middle,which was the impetus factor for water utilization change tendency;(4) The spatial difference of various effects reflected such a phenomenon that the effect function has a consanguineous relationship with the economy development level,industrial foundation and resources conditions,so the implement of "zero increase" and "negative increase " goal should be in the continuous development of national economy,and the water shortage problem also should be solved in the continuous development of national economy.The result of this research is of significance for exactly understanding the relation of water utilization and economy development,and also has certain reference significance for the regulation of industry policy and sustainable development.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金(40501013)
【CateGory Index】: F426.91
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