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《Arid Land Geography》 2010-03
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Tourism destination lifecycle analysis and development prediction of Shahu Lake in Ningxia Province

WANG Lian-bing1,LIU Xiao-peng2(1 School of Urban and Environment Sciences,Northwest University,Xi'an 710127,Shaanxi,China;2 School of Resources and Environment,Ningxia University,Yinchuan,750021,Ningxia,China)  
Development on the evolution of different types of tourism destination is one of the main concerns of related subjects and scholars,and the standard of the measurement on tourism development evolution is the focus of the debate.Butler's tourism destination lifecycle theory plays an important guiding role in the process of development on both micro and macro-evolution of a tourism destination because of its maturity and widely application in many tourism destinations.Wetlands eco-system in arid region of Northwest China is the organic component of the whole oasis eco-system,which has the important influence,interactive effect and plays an irreplaceable and important function in regulating the amount of water,local microclimate and the structure,function,tendency of oasis as well as guaranteeing the stable development and the benign cycle of oasis,meanwhile,it is also a kind of important tourism resources.Scientifically analysis the development rule and trend of Wetlands tourism area in such pattern of region is undoubtedly more realistic and has long-term comprehensive effect and significance.The tourism destination lifecycle and its development prediction study play an important part in further guidance on tourism planning,construction and management,however,for the lake and pond tourism destinations in arid and semi-arid area,the study on its rule and trend is still relatively weak.This paper takes Shahu Lake at Ningxia Province as the study case which lies in the near east of Northwest China.As a famous lake and pond landscapes of tourism destination,Shahu Lake has become one of the national 5A-class tourist scenic spots after 20 years' development and construction,the number of visitors keeps a rising trend on the whole,but due to many factors,tourist annual growth rate keeps a fluctuating state.By using tourism destination lifecycle theory of Butler,taking indexes data such as tourist quantity,tourist increment rate and sliding mean value from 1990-2008 as the bases,making system analysis on Ningxia Shahu lake tourism destination lifecycle,and combining the beeline and the index tendency forecast model,obtaining tourist's change in the recent 5 years,taking into account of location,policy,propaganda and emergencies,which may impact the increase of visitors,the paper has adopted sliding mean value to make amend the result,the result shows that as an important component of Ningxia Plain lake and wetland landscapes,the life cycle characteristics and rules between Shahu Lake and ordinary tourism destinations are different.Shahu Lake tourism destination lifecycle has experienced 4 stages,namely exploration stage(before 1989),participation stage(1990-1999),development stage(2000-2004) and consolidation stage(2005-present).Through the forecast,the tourist number of Shahu lake from 2009-2013 is 0.5867,0.6069,0.6271,0.6473 and 0.6675 million respectively.In order to make Shahu Tourism destination not enter the decline phase and extend its lifecycle,some countermeasures are given as follows,firstly,highlight the characteristics and develop the new markets of Shahu Lake in order to meet demand of all kinds of tourists;secondly,try to use every possible means to shorten the low season;thirdly,protect the scenic environment,develop eco-tourism and leisure tourism.
【Fund】: 宁夏“十二五”规划前期重大问题研究项目(09NXFGY005)
【CateGory Index】: F592.7;F224
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