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《Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas》 2007-03
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The grey analysis on grain output and its main input elements in Shaanxi province from 1983 to 2004

FAN Jian-gang(College of politics and economy of Shaanxi Normal University,Xi'an,Shaanxi 710062,China)  
Due to the enlarging gap between grain supply and demand in Shaanxi province,it is urgent to conduct an analysis of agricultural input elements.By using the grey analysis on grain output of Shaanxi province and farming area,agricultural machinery power,fertilization dosage,effective irrigation area,disastrous area from 1983 to 2004,We will get the structure variation of input and output,the crucial factors of impacting grain output during the past 22 years.The grey analysis indicates that,from 1983 to 2004,the first three crucial factors impacting grain output of Shaanxi province are agricultural labor force population,effective irrigation area,and farming area.In terms of the impact of fertilization dosage,agricultural machinery power as well as disastrous areas affected,there experienced a change from weak to strong.In order to increase the grain output of Shaanxi province,it is suggested that more efforts should be put to stabilize farming areas,increase effective irrigation areas,promote the transfer of agricultural labor force,and optimize resource collocation.
【CateGory Index】: F326.11;F224
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