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《Arid Zone Research》 2015-06
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Climate Variation of Huaxi Autumn Rain and the Impact Factors Influencing It

WANG Chun-xue;MA Zhen-feng;SHAO Peng-cheng;WANG Jia-jin;FANG Si-da;Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province;Climate Center of Sichuan Province;National Climate Center;Wuhan Regional Climate Centre;  
The climate variation of Huaxi Autumn Rain and its impact factors are analyzed using the methods of empirical orthogonal function( EOF) and multi-taper method and singular value decomposition. The results of EOF analysis of Huaxi Autumn Rain show that the spatial distribution of the first characteristic vector is consistent in all areas. The variance contribution of the first principal is 57. 7% which is the primary mode. Cycle analysis indicates that Huaxi autumn rain has significant quasi-4-year cycle on the interannual variability scale and quasi-12-year cycle on the decadal variability scale. Cycle reconstruction shows that the abnormal distribution of all of the 4 phases in the quasi-4 year cycle are similar to the main model. The 8 phases in the quasi-12 year cycle are also similar to the main model. On interannual and decadal scales there exists good correlation between South China Sea subtropical high intensity index,India-Burma trough index,the Southern Oscillation Index,Nino 4 SST index and the intensity of Huaxi autumn rain. By using of the correlation analysis,the multiple factors and multiple variations statistic prediction mode of Huaxi autumn rain intensity is initially established.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(41275097);; 川气课题(2014-青年-10);; 公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306022)
【CateGory Index】: P426.6
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