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《Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment》 2006-06
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Influences of Global-warming on Water Resources System in the Riverhead Area of the Yellow River

LAN Yong-chao~(1),SHEN Yong-ping~(1),LI Zhou-ying~(2),LIU Jin-qi~(1),MA Jian-hua~(2)(1.Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000;2.Administrative Office of Hydrology and Water Resources of the Upper Reaches of the Yellow River,Lanzhou 730030,China)  
Changes of temperature,precipitation and runoffin the riverhead area of the Yellow River basin were analyzed according to the related hydrological and meteorological data for about 50years. The results showed thetemperature change possessed the obvious corresponding relationship with global warming,and temperatures all rose in varied degrees at everyplace in the area.Precipitation in the area had been decreasing as whole since 1960s,but the decrease extents of the precipitation at everyplaceshowed obvious difference becauseof different geography position,and the decrease extent of the precipitation in the southeast of the area was the biggestsince 1990,where runoff yield was the highest in the area.The runoff in the riverhead area of the Yellow River had been decreasing continually because of the influences of above factors.GCMS and some statistic models were used for forecasting the future possible variations on the precipitation and runoff in the basin based on above analysis,and the results showed temperature in the area would unceasinglyrise and precipitation markedlyincrease in the future 30 years.Runoff in the area woull also increase in a certain extentalong with precipitation increasing.
【Fund】: 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX3-SW-229);; 中国气象局沙漠气象基金项目(sqj2005002)资助
【CateGory Index】: TV213.4
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