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《Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment》 2007-09
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Research on Population Prediction and Sustainable Development of Gansu Province

SHI Pei-ji,ZHU Xuan(Geography and Environment College,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China)  
The population is the sustainable development premise of a country or a region.whether the population scale is reasonable is very important to the sustainable development of economy,society and ecosystem environment in a country or a region.So the population prediction is one of the researches which have important social economic meaning.This research makes the prediction of the population development during 2005-2020 of Gansu province by using Malthus population model,Logistic increase model and the population data of Gansu Statistic Yearbook.The average values of the Malthus population model and Logistic increase model are regarded as the result of the prediction.The sustainable development of the population and water,farmland,mineral,energy are analyzed on the foundation of prediction.The population countermeasures are put forward for the sustainable development.It can offer the references for establishing the national economy and society development stratagem and realizing the sustainable development of population and resource environment of Gansu Province.
【Fund】: 甘肃省软科学重大项目(4RS054-A65-111)
【CateGory Index】: C924.24
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