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《Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment》 2009-08
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Statistical forecast model for rainstorm circulation in eastern foot of Helan Mountain

JI Xiaoling1,2,SANG Jianren1,YANG Kan2,MU Jianhua2,CHENXiaojuan2,ZHANG Nannan2(1.Key Laboratory of Ningxia Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction.Yinchuan 750002,Ningxia,P.R.China;2.Ningxia Meteorological Observatory,Yinchuan 750002,Ningxia,P.R.China)  
By using the daily NCAR/NCEP global re-analysis data in the same time,aiming at 40 rainstorms occurred in the eastern foot of Helan Mountain,4 types of main circulation background were obtained after analysis: 'two-ridge and one-trough','twn-trough and one-ridge','one-ridge and one-trough',and 'one,trough and one ridge'.Among them,the possibility of the rainstorm occurrence was the biggest under the circulation situation of 'two-ridge and one-trough',nearly the same under the circulation situation of 'two-trough and one-ridge' and 'one-ridge and one-trough',and was relatively less under the situation of 'one-trough and one'ridge'.Furthermore,the statistical model of rainstorm circulation in the eastern foot of Helan Mountain was analyzed based on the synthesis analysis of circulation situations of different weather processes under the same circulation background.The analysis results showed: rainstorms occurred most frequently in the 1970s in the eastern foot of Helan Mountain,relatively less in the 1960s,1980s,1990s,and during 2000-2006.They mainly occurred during the late spring to early fall in each year,concentrated in July and August,and in particular,July 20th to August 10th was a period with high frequency of rainstorms,it was in accordance with the rule that heavy precipitation mainly occured during the last ten-day of July to the first ten-day of August in Ningxia whole region.Lingwu to Pingluo was the area where rainstorm occurred most,Pingluo had the highest frequency while Shitanjin of Shizuishan city had the lowest frequency of rainstorms.The large-scale terrain of Helan Mountain had obvious increase effect upon the occurrence of heavy precipitation in the eastern foot of it.
【Fund】: 宁夏科技厅科技攻关项目(05GG-20503);; 宁夏自然科学基金(NZ07125)项目共同资助
【CateGory Index】: P458.121.1
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