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《Studies of International Finance》 2019-05
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The Forward-Looking Monetary Policy Transformation and Evaluation of Asset Price Expectation Management Effect

Zhang Chengsi;Ji Xingchen;  
"Expectation management"has gradually become an important option for central banks around the world to regulate monetary policy, and the central bank of China has also shifted its monetary policy based on the idea of expectation management. On the basis of reviewing the changes and practice of global monetary policy, this paper tries to construct the logical chain between and among central bank information, market expectation and asset price based on the information communication channel and financial market channel theory of monetary policy transmission mechanism. The paper also selects the bond futures price and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index data to evaluate the expectation management effect of central banks by studying the relationship between market expectations and asset prices. By using the unknown break-point structural change test and the recursive regression method to determine the transition point, this paper conducts comparative analysis, which shows that against the background of innovative open market operation tools, compared with the traditional interest rate policy tools, the market is expected to show a more obvious guiding role in asset prices. This suggests that the transformation of traditional monetary policy into forward-looking monetary policy can achieve better policy regulation and control effect.
【Fund】: 教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(16JJD790057)资助
【CateGory Index】: F822.0;F832.5
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