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《RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN WORLD SEISMOLOGY》 1998-08
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DISCUSSION ABOUT STUDIES ON SEISMOGENIC PROCESS AND EARTHQUAKE PRECURSORY MECHANISM IN CHINA

Li Shiyu, Wu Zhongliang, Zhang Tianzhong Xu Lisheng, Fan Hongshun, Wang Jian, Chen Yuntai (Institute of Geophysics, CSB, Beijing, 100081)  
Earthquake prediction research is now facing the contradiction between the low prediction level and the high expectations of governments and the public.One of the fundamental way out is to strengthen the research of precursory mechanism.The observation of earthquake precursors belongs to generalized geophysical inversion , the existing methods of geophysical prospecting should not be copied indiscriminately,but we should seek a new way out .The structure setting of earthquake occurrences in China is different that of other countries, such as the United States and Japan,so we should develop the theory and method of seismic source physics suited to the geologic conditions of the Chinese mainland.There are three aspects of perfections in the studies of earthquake precursory mechanism:(1)positive and negative proofs of existence and inexistence;(2)proof of measurable physical quantities of precursors;(3)proof of similarity of simulation conditions.These three perfections are significant marks to judge whether the study is ripe or not .For the establishment of earthquake prediction experimental sites,it is inadvisable to use the method“Stand by a stump waiting for more hares to come and dash themselves against it——trust to chance and strokes of luck” that have no certainty of success,and it is also not suitable to use the method of mobile observation. The authors suggest that earthquake prediction experimental sites should be established in the mines or large reservoir areas where tectonic earthquakes may be induced many times.
【Fund】: 地震学联合基金重点项目
【CateGory Index】: P315.1
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