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《Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development》 2007-12
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Analysis of Traffic Accident Reconstruction Uncertainty

ZHANG Lei,LI Yi-bing (State Key Laboratory of Automobile Safety and Energy,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)  
There are many uncertain factors in road traffic accidents.It is necessary to consider the uncertainty influence of these factors by random theory to improve the analysis veracity.In order to improve the precision and reliability of traffic accident analysis and reconstruction,random theory and the probabilistic perturbation method are introduced for the uncertainty analysis of traffic accident.The confidence interval and confidence of parameters are obtained expediently by the uncertainty analysis and the precision of traffic accident analysis or reconstruction is improved.A typical vehicle-pedestrian accident is investigated by the method above,and the calculated result is contrasted with Monte Carlo simulation method,which proves that the method adopted in the paper is accurate and effective.
【CateGory Index】: U491.3
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