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《Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development》 2008-05
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Development of a Multinomial Logit Model for Trave Mode Choice of Residents

LIU Bing-en1,JUAN Zhi-cai2,LI Yan-ling1,GONG Bo-wen1(1.School of Transportation,Jilin University,Chanchun Jilin 130025,China;2.Antai College of Economics & Management,Shanghai Jiaotong University,Shanghai 200052,China)  
Based on the theory of disaggregate discrete choice and its modeling method,referring to the survey data of residents' daily travel of Beijing City in 2003,five daily travel ways including bus,taxi,private car,etc.were selected as a alternative set,and characteristic variables affecting mode choice and the method of getting its values were determined,then a Multinomial Logit Model(MNL) was developed finally.The model's parameters were calibrated by applying the function of fminunc in Optimization Toolbox of Matlab,and the model's validity was testified by calculating the hit ratio.The result shows that the disaggregate model considers more influence factors,especially the individual character factors,it can help improve the model's forecasting accuracy.
【Fund】: 高等学校博士学科点专荐科研基金资助项目(20050183040)
【CateGory Index】: U491.111
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