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《Journal of Arid Meteorology》 2015-06
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Forecast Test of T639 Model on Heavy Snowfall in Warm Area of Northern Xinjiang

ZHUANG Xiaocui;ZHOU Hongkui;LI Boyuan;Institute of Desert Meteorology of CMA;Aletai Meteorological Bureau of Xinjiang;Tuokexun Meteorological Station of Xinjiang;Qinghe Meteorological Station of Xinjiang;  
Based on the thirteen processes of heavy snowfall in warm area of northern Xinjiang from November to next March during2009- 2014,72 hours forecast effect of T639 model was verified by using statistic and synoptics methods. And on this basis the application pattern of T639 model was established. The results showed that the errors of situation fields,the specific humidity on 850 h Pa,700 h Pa and 500 h Pa,the water vapor flux on 700 h Pa,and the vorticity over middle and lower troposphere for heavy snowfall in warm area of northern Xinjiang forecasted by T639 model were relatively small,and the forecast precisions were higher,especially within 48 hours. The synoptic test showed that the consistency of the moisture flux divergence on 850 h Pa,relative humidity,divergence,dew-point deficit in middle and low troposphere,and vertical velocity within 48 hours forecasted by T639 model with the actual were better,it has a better indicative significance for heavy snowfall in warm area of northern Xinjiang.
【Fund】: 中国沙漠气象科学研究基金(Sqj2013008)资助
【CateGory Index】: P456.7
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