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《Journal of Southern Agriculture》 2011-09
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Forecast for the grain yield of Guangxi based on the multiple linear regression model

ZHOU Yong- sheng,XIAO Yu- huan,HUANG Run- sheng (College of Management,Guilin University of Technology,Guilin,Guangxi 541004,China)  
【Objective】The present study was carried out to forecast the grain yield of Guangxi by using multiple linear regression model in order to provide references for related researches. 【Method】The factors affecting the grain yield in Guangxi were analyzed. Based on the analysis, multiple linear regression model was used to forecast the grain yield of Guangxi. 【Result】The factor of grain planting area had the biggest impact on the grain yield of Guagnxi, followed by yield per unit area and the precipitation. The multiple linear regression equation of grain yield associated with planting area, yield per unit area and precipitation was as follow: y=-517.759+0.158x1+0.382x2-0.01x3. The grain yield of Guangxi in 2012 was predicted as 14643810 tons based on the multiple linear regression equation. 【Conclusion】The grain planting area should not be decreased in order to sustain the yield and production of grains in Guangxi. Under this premise, acceleration in innovation of agricultural science and technology, development of irrigation and conservation projects and implementation of related policies have been suggested.
【Fund】: 广西钟山县国民经济和社会发展十二五规划
【CateGory Index】: F326.11
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