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《Journal of Meteorological Research and Application》 2007-01
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A Brief Overview of Ensemble Forecasts

WANG Tai-wei,CHEN De-hui(Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081)  
More than a century pasted since the approach of numerical weather prediction was firstly proposed by V.Bjerknes(1904).A lot of dramatic progresses have been made to increase the skills of numerical weather prediction.However, it seems to be more and more difficult to improve the accuracy of the single deterministic forecast due to the intrinsic uncertainties(originated from both initial conditions and model approximations) and the chaotic atmosphere.Based on the initial condition uncertainties,a pioneering work has been made by Lorenz (1965) to orientate the numerical weather forecasts—ensemble forecast.This paper sums up the basic concepts,outstanding issues and recent development of ensemble technique,which includes(1) what's the ensemble weather prediction(2) the recent development of ensemble prediction concerning the generation methods of initial perturbation and model perturbation.(3) How to validate ensemble prediction and interpret and evaluate its products.
【CateGory Index】: P456.7
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