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《Plateau Meteorology》 2003-05
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Prediction of Annual Average Temperature Change along Qinghai-Xizang Railway

LI Dong\|liang\+1,\ GUO Hui\+1,\ WANG Wen\+2,\ WEI Li\+1(1. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China; 2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)\ \  
The annual average temperature of the stations along Qinghai\|Xizang railwaycorrelated well each other, especially the correlationof 10\|year running average series of them is 0.92. According to the result, the annual averagetemperature series along Qinghai\|Xizang railway (\%T\%rw) from 1935 to 2000 are constructed. The results show that there is notable response between \%T\%rwand the sunspot cycle length (SCL) and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations(CO\-2) with lagging 5 and 15 years, respectively. The correlation coefficient between them respectivelyis -0.76(SCL) and 0.88(CO2). Using 76 a, 93 a, 108 a, 205 aand 75 a significant cycle of SCL and the model of mean generating function, the fast and slow periods of the future SCL is predicted, and the values of SCL in the former 50 years in 2000 will be higher as a whole, and will be lower in the latter 50 years. Considering double CO2concentrations and the climatic change, \%T\%rwof 21\+\{st\}century is forecasted to warm up about 0.5℃ as compared with the last 10 years in 20thcentury (1990's), and about1.0℃ as compared with the last 30 years of 20thcentury (1971\_2000).
【Fund】: 中国科学院知识创新工程重大项目"青藏铁路工程与多年冻土相互作用及其环境效应"(KZCX1 SW 04)资助
【CateGory Index】: P468.021
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