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《Plateau Meteorology》 2004-S1
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Short-Range Ensemble Simulation of “2003.8.28” Heavy Rain on the East Side of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

CHEN Jing~1, LI Chuan~1,FENG Han-zhong~2, HE Guang-bi~1(1. Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu 610072, China;2. The Observartory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China)  
Using the non-hydrostatic MM5 version and the global model T213 ofNational Meteorological Center of China, we explore the impact of parameterization schemes of diabatic physics on a heavy rain occurringon theeast side of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau on 28~29 August 2003. The short-range ensemble predictionhad been made by using differentkinds of physic to establish some science base for deep ensembleperturbation method in this area. The results show the physical parameterized scheme of model have obvious impacts on results of meso-scale precipitation forecast, including local precipitation intensity, spatical distribution pattern and time-varying characteristic and so on. As the model resolution rising, the scheme of cumulus convection parameterization will increase 1~5 mm rainfall areas to lead the false precipitation. Considering the level of numerical prediction on present stage, the high resolution ensemble prediction system should focus on the ensemble prediction of heavy rainfall.The results indicate that the ensemble simulations can improve the unstable determinate predictions of heavy rain and providemore useful and valuable prediction information for heavy rainfallforecast.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(40475045);; 国家十五重点科技攻关项目“中国气象数值预报系统技术创新研究”;; 四川省气象局重大 项目;; 中国气象局成都高原气象研究所开放实验室基金共同资助
【CateGory Index】: P458.121.1
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