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《Plateau Meteorology》 2005-03
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Evolution Characteristics of Dry and Wet Climates in Chaidamu Basin in Recent 1100 Years and Its Tendency Prediction

LI Lin 1, WANG Zhen-yu 1, QIN Ning-sheng 1, LI Dong-liang 2, ZHU Xi-de 1, WANG Qing-chun 1 (1. Qinghai Provincial Climate Data Center, Xining 810001, China; 2.Cold and Arid Region Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese of Academy Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China)  
Using the Qilianyuanai tree ring width sequence sampled on the northeastern side of Zongwulun mountain and Shalike mountain of Chaidamu basin and its response remation to the precipitation change, the precipitation sequence in Chaidamu Basin in recent 1100 years is reestablished, and its characteristics of drought and flood evolutionsare analyzed. In view of this, the future evolution tendency is predicted. Theresult shows that the reestablished equation based on the first main component of EOF analyses of Qilianyuanbai tree ring width sequence and the relationship of precipitation sequence in Delinha is stable, which can represent the historical precipitation sequence in Chaidamu; Chaidamu Basin had passed four relative wet and arid stages in the past 1100 years, it was a stage with abundant rainfall from 1971 to 2000, but it had began to decrease since 1990′s, at the mean time, the precipitation sequence had the most significantperiod with quasi three years. The precipitation in Chaidamu Basin will be possibly decreased.
【Fund】: 中国科学院知识创新工程重大项目(KZCX1SW04);; 科技部社会公益研究项目(2001DIB10085)共同资助
【CateGory Index】: P467
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