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《Plateau Meteorology》 2007-04
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The Preliminary Application of Ensemble Prediction in Flash Flood Forecasting

LI Jun,LIAO Yi-shan,ZHANG Bing,SHEN Tie-yuan(Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain,China Meteorological Administration,Wuhan 430074,China)  
Four flood cases were selected to compare the effect between different model resolutions,an experiment has been implemented to study the flood prevention using ensemble forecast approach,which constructed by various physical processes of mesoscale model.The results indicate that it is not a beneficial selection under the actual operational conditions,to improve the forecast capability of heavy rain which caused mostly flash flood events only by heightening the model resolution,moreover,there are uncertainties in the results of single determinate forecasting.Thus the ensemble approach was introduced in the fields of flood prevention,compared with the single forecasting of determinate model,a series of quantitative results were offered by ensemble prediction.The different precipitation grand of ensemble average and ensemble extremum can lead to classify the measures.Additionally,the ensemble prediction can not only offer the distribution of precipitation but also offer the quantitative reliability with the result,combine the Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts(PQPF) with hydrological model,a probabilistic hydrological forecasting system can be built.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(40575029 50379040)资助
【CateGory Index】: P456.7
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