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《Plateau Meteorology》 2007-04
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Analysis on Drought Variation over 10 Hydrological Regions in China during 1951-2005

WANG Zhi-wei1,ZHAI Pan-mao2,WU Yong-li1(1.Shanxi Climate Center,Taiyuan 030002,China;2.National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)  
Based on the monthly precipitation data of 629 stations during 1951 to 2005,drought variations over China′s 10 main hydrological regions were analyzed using Z index calculations.The results revealed that evident expanding trends in drought area were detected in the Songhuajiang River,the Huaihe River,and the Haihe River basins.However,the areas of drought showed no significant increasing or decreasing trends in the region of the Yangtze River,the Zhujiang River,the Southwest Rivers,and the Southeast Rivers basins,and decreasing trend was found in Northwest Rivers basin.Interdecadal and decadal variations were distinct for all the 10 hydrological regions.Interannual variations were large for the Huaihe River,Haihe River and the Liaohe River basins,and it was small for the Southwest Rivers and the Yangtze River basins.Since 1990′s,drought areas rapidly increased in the Songhuajiang River,Liaohe River,Haihe River and the Huaihe River,but began to decrease since the early 2000′s.According to the analyses of linear trends and secular variations,it was predicted that drought areas would likely to decrease in early 2000′s for the Haihe River,the Liaohe River,the Songhuajiang River,the Huaihe River,the Northwest Rivers and the Yellow River basins due to the increases of precipitation.In contrast,the Southeast Rivers and the Zhujiang River would likely to face increases of drought coverage because of less rainfall amounts.And there are no obvious changes in drought for the Yangtze River and the Southwest Rivers basins.
【Fund】: 山西省气象局开放基金项目“不同干旱指数在山西干旱监测中的应用及修订”(SX052001);; 中国气象局气象新技术推广项目“干旱监测方法优化完善与推广应用”(CMATG2005M03);; “省级综合干旱监测预警评估系统”(CMATG2006M26)共同资助
【CateGory Index】: P337
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