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《Plateau Meteorology》 2008-01
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Analysis of Numerical Simulation on Extreme Precipitation in China Using a Coupled Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Model

WANG Zhi-fu1,QIAN Yong-fu1,LIN Hui-juan1-2(1.Institute of Severe Weather and Climate,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093, China;2.Zhejiang Research Institute of Meteorology,Hangzhou 310017,China)  
Extreme weather and climate events have received more and more attention in recent years,due to the often large losses of human life as well as a tremendous increase in economic losses caused by them.Based on the 40-year(1958—1997) precipitation data simulated by a coupled regional ocean-atmosphere model system(P-σ RegCM9-POM),by defining the 90th percentile as the threshold of extreme precipitation for each grid,the characteristics of the summer extreme precipitation events in China simulated by the model are studied.Results show that the coupled regional ocean-atmosphere model system has the ability to produce the spatial distribution of the climatic mean extreme precipitation threshold,which is characterized by several large value centers including south China,the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley,north and part of northeast China.Also the trends in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation are captured.The summer extreme precipitation and extreme precipitation days significantly increase in the middle reaches of Yangtze River,some parts of southwest China and the lower reaches of Yangtze River,and decrease significantly in Midwest,some regions of north and northeast China.But they decrease in large part of the lower reaches of Yangtze River,which is opposite to the observational result.This may be caused by the difference in the peak values of the daily precipitation between the first few model years and the later years.Using the EOF(empirical orthogonal function) method,the temporal and spatial variation of the extreme precipitation events is studied.The first EOF pattern exhibits a main feature that the anomalies of the parameters of the extreme precipitation events over the areas south of Yangtze River are opposite to that over the coastal region of south China,and the areas north of Yangtze River;and this variation is featured as an interdecadal variation.While the second pattern shows that the anomalies over northwest and part of southwest China are opposite to that over other regions,and that it changes interannually.The time correlation and space correlation methods are used to investigate the ability of the coupled regional model to capture the properties of extreme precipitation.The analysis shows that the model can basically simulate well the closely correlated relation between each two of the extreme precipitation,the total rainfall in summer,and the extreme precipitation days.
【Fund】: 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目“我国南方致洪暴雨监测与预测的理论和方法研究”(2004CB418300);; 国家自然科学基金项目“我国温度和降水气候极端事件及其与全球不均匀增暖的联系(40675042)”共同资助
【CateGory Index】: P426.6
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