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《Plateau Meteorology》 2009-03
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Extreme Precipitation Experimentation over Eastern China Based on Generalized Pareto Distribution

JIANG Zhi-hong1,DING Yu-guo1,ZHU Lian-fang2,ZHANG Jin-ling1,ZHU Lian-hua1(1.Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster ofMinistry of Education,Nanjing 210044,China;2.Suzhou Meteorological Bureau,Suzhou 215131,China)  
The Generalized Pareto Distribution(GPD) is introduced to simulate the daily extreme precipitation at 78 stations over Eastern China from May to September.The results indicate that the probability distribution of the daily extreme precipitation is subjected to GPD under the different threshold,and GPD is superior to other extreme value distributions such as Generalized Extreme Value Distribution(GEV).According to the observed climatic conditions from 1951—2000,the 50-year and 100-year return values of annual extreme precipitation are calculated,respectively and the space distribution features are analyzed.They are in substantial agreement which in general present downtrend from southeast to northwest,while there are obvious differences between south and north and the return valuesin the former area may reach more than twice compared to the latter one.In addition,the larger size of observed time series is,the better of the fitting is.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(40875058);; 江苏省高校自然科学重大基础研究项目(07KJA17020)共同资助
【CateGory Index】: P426.6
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