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《Plateau Meteorology》 2009-04
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Analysis of Changes in Different-Class Precipitation over Eastern China under Global Warming

ZHU Jian,ZHANG Yao-cun,HUANG Dan-qing(School of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China)  
Daily precipitation data simulated by high-resolution version of MIROC(MIROC_Hires,Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate) is used to analyze changes in different-class precipitation characteristics over eastern China under global warming.The results show that the MIROC model can well reproduce not only the spatial distribution but also the seasonal changes of precipitation over eastern China in 1971-2000.Since in the whole eastern China,the precipitation intensity differs much from south to north,characteristics of precipitation in South China,Yangtze-Huaihe Basin,North China and Northeast China are analyzed,respectively.Comparing with the quantity and frequency of different-class precipitation between the period of 1971-2000 and 2071-2100,there are siginficant changes in the four regions.In South China,increase in frequencies of non-precipitation and heavy(≥24 mm·d-1) rainfall days is significant,up to 13.8 d·a-1 and 4.2 d·a-1,respectively,and those of relatively weak(1~12 mm·d-1) rainfall days decrease.In Yantze-Huaihe Basin,the mean annual precipitation averaged over the region increases while frequencies of heavy rainfall days increase by 3.6 d·a-1 and those of relatively weak rainfall days decrease.In North China,the increase of mean annual precipitation is the most significant in the four regions,up to 30.5%,while frequencies of non-precipitation increase.In Northeast China,though the rainfall intensity in present days is not so much as in the other three regions,the frequencies of rainfall days increase either.As the rainfall intensity increases in the four regions,events of the extreme rainfall days are supposed to increase.
【Fund】: 公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200806006)资助
【CateGory Index】: P426.614
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