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《Plateau Meteorology》 2011-02
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Validation of Multi-Model Ensemble to Air Temperature of China and Projection of Air Temperature Change in China for the Next Three Decades

LIU Ke1-2,XU Yin-long1-2,TAO Sheng-cai1-2,PAN Jie1-2,YANG Hong-long1-3(1.Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,Chinese Academy ofAgricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;2.Key Laboratory of Agro-Environment & Climate Change of Agriculture Ministry,Beijing 100081,China;3.Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education/College of Atmospheric Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China)  
Using the daily series of temperature observations at 701 meteorological stations of China in the period of 1961-1999,the simulated results of 20 global climate models(including BCCR_BCM2_0,CGCM3T47 etc.) at the same period are validated and analyzed;using three factor statistical methods the ensemble prediction results of multi-model are given,using the observation data in the period of 1991-1999,the ensemble results are tested and verified.The changes of annual mean temperature in the period of 2011-2040 under the emission scenarios of A2,A1B and B1 are analyzed,which are the predictive results of multi-model ensemble prediction.The analyzed results show that:(1) The global climate model can reproduce the regional spatial distribution of annual mean temperature in China,especially in the low latitude and eastern China.(2) At the factor of trend of annual mean temperature changing in reference period,there is obvious bias between the simulation and observation.(3) Testing the resemble result of multi-models in the period of 1991-1999,it can simulate the trend of temperature increasing,comparing with the observation,the result of different weighing ensemble predictions is better than the same weighing ensemble prediction.(4) In the period of 2011-2040,the increase of annual mean temperature in China which result from multi-model ensemble prediction is above 1 ℃,in the spatial distribution of annual mean temperature,under the emission scenarios of A2,A1B and B1,the increase in South China is the least,and its range is less than or equal 0.8 ℃;the northwest China region and south of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are the biggest,and its range is more than 1 ℃.
【Fund】: 公益性行业(气象)科研专项经费项目“面向适应的不同稳定浓度下的气候变化情景”(GYHY200806010);; 气候变化对中国粮食生产影响评价系统研究项目(GYHY200806008);; 973“北方干旱化与人类适应”子项目(2006CB400505)共同资助
【CateGory Index】: P467
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