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《Journal of North China Electric Power University(Natural Science Edition)》 2008-03
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Application study of three methods in wind speed prediction

HAN Shuang,YANG Yong-ping,LIU Yong-qian(School of Energy and Power Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)  
The comparison of persistence,ARIMA and BP neural network methods in wind speed prediction application of 1h in advance was discussed.To avoid the seasonality influence,models were built respectively for every calendar month.Wind speed was a non-stationary sequence and difference algorithm should be used for original wind speed sequence.The input nerve cells number was decided through relativity analysis for sample data.The result shows that ARIMA model and BP network model are better than persistence method and BP better than ARIMA under most circumstances.But there are examples that persistence method is better than ARIMA and BP models and ARIMA better than BP model.It is improper to say that one method is always superior to another;to choose proper prediction method for the best prediction,detailed analysis should be made.
【Fund】: 国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)资助项目(2007AA05Z428)
【CateGory Index】: P457.5
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