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《Research of Environmental Sciences》 2010-01
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Study on the Variation Trends of Regional Environmental Risk for Tianjin Binhai New Area Based on DPSIR Model

SUN Xiao-rong~1,SHAO Chao-feng~21.Tianjin Appraisal Center for Environment & Engineering,Tianjin 300191,China2.College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China  
According to the formation mechanism of regional environmental pollution accidents and the Driving ForcesPressures-State-Impacts-Responses(DPSIR) model,a set of indices and an evaluation model were constructed to measure systematically the variation trends of the regional environmental risk.The indices were used to assess the variation trends of the regional environmental risk caused by environmental emergencies in the process of industrialization for Tianjin Binhai New Area.The results show that the value of the environmental risk factor was 0.487 in the Tianjin Binhai New Area in 2007,which indicates that the environmental security conditions in the area were relatively unsafe.The values of the environmental risk factors are projected to be 0.508(worse condition) and 0.367(moderate condition) in 2015 and 2020,respectively.These will provide important guidance to policy makers for preventing accidents and dealing with emergencies.
【Fund】: 天津市科技支撑计划重点项目(07ZCGYSF01900)
【CateGory Index】: X820.4
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