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《Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae》 2006-04
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Modeling the export of point sources of nutrients from the Yangtze River basin and discussing countermeasures

WANG Jianing~ 1,2 , YAN Weijin~ 1,* , JIA Xiaodong~ 3 1. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101 2. Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039 3. China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083  
We estimated the amount of nutrient (mainly referring to nitrogen, N and phosphorus, P) emissions from point sources discharged to surface water for the period 1985~2003 from the Yangtze River basin. Point sources are primarily associated with sewage effluents, including human emissions and wastewater from industrial activities. Two models were developed to predict the emissions of nutrient in 2020 by using statistical method, and the influence of human activities was discussed in this paper. The approach to assess the nutrient emissions from point sources was based on population densities, gross domestic products (GDP), per capita human N emissions and wastewater treatment. The coefficients of determination (R~ 2 ) of the models were 92.3% and 93.2%, respectively,with a confidence interval of 99%. The estimated amounts of N and P from point sources will be (95.9±6.6)×10~ 4 ton N and (12.3±0.6)×10~ 4 ton P in 2020 based on the models. The study demonstrated that nutrient emission from point sources is still the dominant part of nutrient fluxthrough the Yangtze River compared with non-point sources. Therefore, the point source nutrient pollution will be the main pollution factor for the estuary and coastal sea.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(No.20377039);; 中国科学院地理科学与资源所知识创新工程领域前沿项目(No.CX10G-A00-06)~~
【CateGory Index】: X522
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