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《Journal of Changsha University of Science & Technology》 2014-04
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Car ownership interval estimation and sensitivity analysis for city based on NARX neural network

HUANG Zhong-xiang;REN Tao;ZHANG Sheng;School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Changsha University of Science and Technology;  
The influence factors of car ownership are analysed and the main factors are selected by applying grey correlation analysis.The relevances among the selected indexes are removed by using principal component analysis,and the number of indexes has reduced simultaneously.According to the selected indexes,a dynamic neural network for NARX is established to predict the interval of car ownership.Taking the historical data of 2000~2012in Changsha as input data,the car ownership interval of 2013~2020is estimated and the corresponding error analysis and sensitivity analysis are developed.The results show the increasing speed of car ownership for 2013~2020is steady and the estimated value for Changsha belongs to[1 891 715,1 913 979]in 2020,and when the GDP's growth rate reduces per one percent,the car ownership growth rate reduces 0.53 percent,and the policy has a significant influence on the city car ownership.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(51338002 51408058);; 湖南省科技计划项目(2014GK3023)
【CateGory Index】: U491
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