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《Meteorological and Environmental Sciences》 2009-02
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Verification of National Refined Temperature Guidance Forecast of Henan in 2008 Flood Season

Li Chaoxing1,Wu Zhen1,Li Zhou1,Wang Zhenya1,Ji Hongli2, He Zhe1 (1.Henan Provincial Meteorological Observatory,Zhengzhou 450003,China;2.Luoyang Meteorological Office,Luoyang 471000,China)  
The paper analyzes the mean absolute error and grading forecast accuracy of refine temperature guidance forecast of Henan region distributed by National Meteorological Centre in June to August of 2008.The results show the forecast skill of 24h to 96h is better than that of 120h to 168h;the monthly forecast skill of minimum temperature is better than that of maximum temperature;the monthly forecast skill of temperature in July and August is better than that in June;the forecast skill in plain is better than that in mountain area.Compared with the forecasting skill of temperature of Henan Provincial Meteorological Observatory,the score of maximum temperature of national refined forecast is commonly 6 to 13 points less than that of Henan Provincial Meteorological Observatory.The national forecast of 0h to 24h and 24h to 48h is 2 to 3 points less than Henan Provincial Meteorological Observatory in June,national forecast of 48h to 72h is 2 more points more than Henan Provincial Meteorological Observatory in June;national forecast is 6 more points more than Henan Provincial Meteorological Observatory in July;national forecast is 6 more points less than Henan Provincial Meteorological Observatory in August.
【Fund】: 国家气象中心项目“天气要素精细(乡镇)预报业务系统建设与改进”资助
【CateGory Index】: P457.3
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