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《Marine Forecasts》 2015-06
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Variation trend characteristics and influencing factors of winter temperature in China

HAN Xue;CHEN Xing-rong;LI Rong-bin;National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center;  
Based on the monthly air temperature of 160 stations obtained from BCC(Beijing Climate Center), the atmospheric circulation data from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, the global SST datasets from NOAA and the sea ice data from NSIDC, spatial-temporal variation characteristics of winter temperature anomalies in China during1951-2011 are analyzed. Results of EOF show that there are two typical spatial distribution modes of winter temperature changes in China, i.e. the uniform mode and North-South opposite mode. Cubic spline functions analysis reveals that both the two typical modes have significant variation trend. Meanwhile, the influences of atmospheric circulation and external forcing factors on the variation trends of winter temperature in China are analyzed by using cubic spline functions, and the distribution and each contribution of influence factors are discussed. Results show that stronger anomalies variations of tropical SST are the crucial external forcing factors of East Asia atmospheric circulation and winter temperature variation in China. When the warmer(cooler) SSTA appears over tropical Indian Ocean and eastern equatorial Pacific, the winter Siberia High is weaker(stronger),and AO is in positive(negative) phase, and then the east Asia winter monsoon is weaker(stronger), then the winter temperature in China is warmer(cooler); when the SSTA over tropical Indian Ocean is warmer(cooler) and SSTA over eastern equatorial Pacific is cooler(warmer), and the east Asia winter monsoon is weaker(stronger), and AO is in negative(positive) phase, and then winter Siberia High is weaker(stronger), then the winter temperature in north China is cooler(warmer) and in south is warmer(cooler).
【Fund】: 国家海洋环境预报中心业务发展基金项目(2013004)
【CateGory Index】: P423.3
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