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Application of ARIMA model in predicting incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Changping district,Beijing

YUAN Mei;ZHANG Zhi-guo;DOU Zhi-hui;WANG Lu-qin;ZHANG Yao;LI Wei-min;GAO Ji-min;Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory for Technology and Application of Model Organisms,School of Laboratory Medicine and Life Science,Wenzhou Medical University;The institute of Tuberculosis Prevention and Control of Changping District,Beijing;National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention;National Tuberculosis Clinical Laboratory of China,Beijing Tuberculosis and Thoracic Tumor Research Institute,Capital Medical University Affiliated Beijing Chest Hospital;  
Objective To establish an ARIMA model for the prediction of incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis( TB)in Changping district,Beijing in 2015 and provide evidence for the prevention and control of TB and resource allocation.Methods The incidence data of TB in local population in Changping during 2009- 2014 were collected from the National Tuberculosis Information Management System. An ARIMA model was established by means of model identification,parameter estimation,detection / diagnosis and model evaluation. The incidence of TB in Changping in2015 was predicted. Results With the established model of ARIMA( 0,1,1)( 0,1,1)12,it was predicted that the pulmonary TB case number would be 851 in local population in Changping in 2013. The error rate of the prediction during January-June 2015 was 1. 65%,lower than 10%,indicating the high precision of the model. Conclusion This study showed that the ARIMA model is applicable for the prediction of TB incidence in Changping.
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