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《Power System Protection and Control》 2010-07
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Short-term load forecasting for holidays based on the similar days’ load modification

LIN Hui1,LIU Jing2,HAO Zhi-feng2,ZHU Feng-feng2,WU Guang-chao2 (1. Huizhou Power Supply Branch,Guangdong Power Grid Group Co. Ltd, Huizhou 516000,China; 2. College of Science,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510640,China)  
According to the specificity of short-term load forecasting for holidays,an algorithm is proposed based on the similar days’ load modification.In order to overcome the difficulty due to few samples,recent weekends are added to the samples from which similar days are selected.Moreover,when it comes to assess the similarity,this algorithm takes into account the meteorology and time.The similarity in meteorology is obtained with grey correlation analysis method, while the similarity in time takes into consideration of "near greater far smaller" and "cyclical" principle.Furthermore,the product of these two is to evaluate the overall similarity in terms of which the similar days are selected.In addition,considering that the day type and annual cycle have an impact on the load,the load of similar weekends is modified on the basis of the proportion between the previous holiday and corresponding weekend while that of similar holidays is amended on grounds of the rate at which load grows.Finally,this algorithm is put into practical operation,and it offers an average relative error of 2.29%.
【CateGory Index】: TM715
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