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《Chinese Journal of Polar Research》 2013-02
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A STUDY ON SCALE AND SCOPE OF MARITIME CARGOES THROUGH THE ARCTIC PASSAGES

Zhang Xia1,Shou Jianmin2,Zhou Haojie1(1Polar Research Institute of China,Shanghai 200136,China;2Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China)  
This paper analyzes the source of goods travelling through the Arctic passages,and examines trades generated from the Arctic area,including oil and gas exploitation.Furthermore,it assesses the present situation for maritime cargo,which travels from the Far East to both Northwestern Europe,and North America.Two main types of cargo that will go through the Arctic passages in the future are identified.First,about 10 million tons of cargo will travel from Russia and the Nordic Arctic area to the Far East in a one-way trade flow of Liquefied Natural Gas(LNG) by 2030.Second,there are the two-way trade flows of containerized cargo from the Far East to Europe and the United States through the Northeast Passage,the Central Passage and the Northwest Passage.This cargo will travel through the arctic area,to relieve pressure on their present routes from the Far East to North-Western Europe and North America.Therefore,the Northwest Passage could share cargo routes from the Far East to the United States.If navigation is technically possible in all seasons,with lower cost ships as ordinary ones,and assumingto sharing traditional canal routes 50%,By 2030,the maximum amount of container freight that will go through the Arctic passages should be approximately 17.43 million TEUs,which is 85% of the traditional canal routes in 2011.The conclusion drawn from this is: in the near future gas transportation in the Northeast Passage will play a major role,and but for transit shipping,more shipping demand for Arctic sea routes will be container transpotation.The shipping costs between by using the Arctic passages and by using the traditional canal routes are also compared in the paper.
【Fund】: 海洋公益性行业科研专项《北极航道适航性评估及航道预报系统研制与示范》(201205007-6);; 极地考察“十二五”专项《南北极环境综合考察与评估》(CHINARE2013-04-05-01)资助
【CateGory Index】: U695.2
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【Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 2 Hits
1 ZHANG Xia1,LIU Yu-xin2,LIN Xiao-liang1,YAN Qi-liang1,DU Jing-fang1(1.Polar Research Institute of China,Shanghai 200136;2.National Ocean Technology Center,Tianjing 300111);Overview on the Population,Structure and Distribution of Inhabitants in the Arctic Region[J];World Regional Studies;2008-04
2 ZHANG Xia1,TU Jing-fang1,GUO Pei-qing2,SUN Kai2,LING Xiao-liang1(1.Polar Research Institute of China,Shanghai 200136,China;2.Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266003,China);The Economic Estimate of Arctic Sea Routes and Its Strategic Significance for the Development of Chinese Economy[J];China Soft Science;2009-S2
【Co-citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 LI Zhen-fu,MIN De-quan(College of Transportation Management,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian,Liaoning 116026,China);Arctic Route Geopolitical Structure Based on Artificial Fish Swarm Clustering Algorithm[J];Scientia Geographica Sinica;2011-01
2 Zhang Cheng & Gu Xingbin;Research and Analysis on the Issues of Delimiting Outer Continental Shelf in the Arctic Seas under the Perspective of International Law[J];International Forum;2013-04
3 HE Shu-feng PING Ying ZHANG Wei-hua;Influence of Arctic Passage on China’s Trade Potential:An Empirical Research Based on Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model[J];Journal of International Trade;2013-08
4 ;Shipping Route Design for Northeast Passage and Economic Analysis of its Navigation[J];Marine Technology;2013-02
5 ZHANG Xia;SHOU Jianmin;ZHOU Haojie;Polar Research Institute of China;Shanghai Maritime University;;Scale and scope of maritime cargoes through the Arctic Passages[J];极地科学进展(英文版);2013-03
6 ZHANG Xia~1,GUO Pei-qing~2,LING Xiao-liang~1,YAN Qi-de~1,TU Jing-fang~1 (1.Polar Research Institute of China,Shanghai 200136;2.Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266005);Study on the economic status of the Arctic states and its Characteristics[J];World Regional Studies;2009-01
7 LU Jun-yuan(Jiangnan Social University,Suzhou 215124,jiangsu,China);On the Characteristics of the Geopolitical Pattern in the Arctic Region[J];World Regional Studies;2010-01
8 PENG Qiu-hong,LU Jun-yuan(Jiangnan Social University,Suzhou 215124,China);The Rights of Indigenous Peoples and China's Participation in the Arctic Geo-economy[J];World Regional Studies;2013-01
9 XU Hua;YIN Zhi-fang;China Waterborne Transport Research Institute;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences;;Cost Evaluation of the Summertime Container Shipping on the Arctic Northeast Passage[J];World Regional Studies;2013-03
10 ZHANG Xia1,TU Jing-fang1,GUO Pei-qing2,SUN Kai2,LING Xiao-liang1(1.Polar Research Institute of China,Shanghai 200136,China;2.Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266003,China);The Economic Estimate of Arctic Sea Routes and Its Strategic Significance for the Development of Chinese Economy[J];China Soft Science;2009-S2
【Secondary Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 3 Hits
1 Gong Jinshuang, CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute;The Chinese oil market:2007 and 2008[J];International Petroleum Economics;2008-02
2 ZHANG Xia1,LIU Yu-xin2,LIN Xiao-liang1,YAN Qi-liang1,DU Jing-fang1(1.Polar Research Institute of China,Shanghai 200136;2.National Ocean Technology Center,Tianjing 300111);Overview on the Population,Structure and Distribution of Inhabitants in the Arctic Region[J];World Regional Studies;2008-04
3 ZHANG Xia~1,GUO Pei-qing~2,LING Xiao-liang~1,YAN Qi-de~1,TU Jing-fang~1 (1.Polar Research Institute of China,Shanghai 200136;2.Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266005);Study on the economic status of the Arctic states and its Characteristics[J];World Regional Studies;2009-01
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