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Evaluation method on ship fire risks

CUI Lu-ning1,2,PU Jin-yun2,HOU Yue2,LIU Ling-yan3 (1.Naval Academy of Armament,Beijing 100161,China;2.Ship and Power College,Naval University of Engineering,Wuhan 430033,China; 3.Electronic College of Engineering,Naval University of Engineering,Wuhan 430033,China)  
Based on the method of fire dynamics and probability statistics,the method of ship fire risk evaluation was presented.The probability Petri net was used to model the process of the ship fire.According to fire dynamics and different characteristics in fire growth,the process was divided into four phases.Based on the probability Petri net,the calculation method of the probability of every fire process was built.According to the characteristics of every stage of ship fire,every fire critical time was calculated. And the average burning acreage calculation method was given.The results indicate that the method is useful in analyzing fire prevention design.
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