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《China Economic Quarterly》 2009-03
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Bank Lending and Economic Fluctuations in China:1993—2005

WEI XU BINKAI CHEN(Peking University)  
This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model which includes the bank lending channel.Real effects of shocks to credit,technology,money demand and monetary policy are quantified using the solution of the model and quarterly data of China.The comparison of simulation results and actual data implies that the model can reflect economic fluctuations.Impulse response and variance decomposition analyses of main variables demonstrate that(1)technology shocks contribute to most of the fluctuations of output,investment and consumption in medium and long terms;(2)the fluctuations of consumption in the short term,loan and real money balance are mostly attributed to credit shocks,which account for less than 10% fluctuations of output and investment;(3)shocks to money demand only have a certain impact on inflation rate,loan and real money balance;(4)shocks to monetary policy should be mainly responsible for the inflation rate fluctuation.
【CateGory Index】: F832.4;F124;F224
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