Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap in China
Guo Qingwang & Jia Junxue (China Financial Policy Research Center,Renmin University of China)
After comparing the three methods of estimating potential output, the paper estimates potential output, output gap and potential growth rate for the period from 1978 to 2002 in China. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The output gap presented classical business cycle character from 1978 to 2002. (2) The output gap fluctuated markedly and frequently before 1995, but more smoothly after 1996 especially after 1999. (3) The increasing trend of output gap obviously changed smoothly and presented some appearances of turnover in 2002, which suggested the active fiscal policy which had been implemented from 1998 had significant effects on preventing economy from slowdown and depression. (4)For the period from 1978 to 2002 by using the detrending method and the production method respectively,we can concluded that average potential growth rate.
【CateGory Index】： F015