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《Journal of Transport Information and Safety》 2014-03
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Development of A Travel Time Prediction Model for Urban Road Network using Multi-source Data

JIANG Zhou;ZHANG Cunbao;XU Zhida;YAN Fengxiang;DING Guofei;Intelligent Transport Systems Research Center,Wuhan University of Technology;Jiaxing City Transport Department;  
In view of the deficiencies of traditional travel time prediction models developed based on Kalman filtering technique and single data source,the multi-source data are used to improve such models and the prediction accuracy of travel time.Floating cars and loop detectors are common ways for collecting travel time,and the two are complementary to each other in many ways.Therefore,the real-time traffic data from the two sources are used as the inputs of the prediction model.Through Kalman filtering,flow,occupancy and travel time are used as inputs of the proposed travel time prediction model.Finally,the model is verified through a simulation from Vissim.The simulation results show that the average absolute relative error of the estimated travel time based on the model developed based on the multi-source data is5.45%,which is 14.4%lower than those estimated based on the loop detector data only and 7.5%lower than those estimated based on the floating car data alone.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:51108361);; 浙江省交通运输厅科技计划项目(批准号:2012T21)资助
【CateGory Index】: U491
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